Why this update matters right now
On February 28 we published our guide to Coastal El Niño 2026. Over the last few weeks the picture has changed substantially: ENFEN has extended the phenomenon's duration through January 2027, the sea surface temperature anomaly (Niño 1+2) climbed to +1.8°C, and an active anomalous swell event has kept between 53 and 75 ports closed along the coast between April 15 and 30. If you surf in Peru, these changes directly affect what we'll see in the 2026 southern season.
What's new: ENFEN extends the alert to January 2027
ENFEN Official Communiqué No. 07-2026, issued on April 16, contains three changes from the March forecast:
- Extended duration: Coastal El Niño will remain active until January 2027 (previously the horizon was December 2026).
- Possible magnitude escalation: the event could reach moderate magnitude between June and July 2026, right in the heart of the southern season.
- Above-normal rainfall on the northern coast during April–June, with potential for isolated extreme events.
The next official communiqué is scheduled for April 30, 2026. We recommend following it at dhn.mil.pe.
Sea temperatures: Niño 1+2 jumps to +1.8°C
The anomalies reported in April mark a new step up from March:
- Niño 1+2 (off Peru): anomaly of +1.8°C as of April 15 (was +1.2°C at the end of March).
- Niño 3: +0.6°C — slight warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Niño 4: +0.9°C — sustained warming in the central-western Pacific.
- Niño 3.4 (global index): +0.5°C, still in ENSO-neutral range.
ENFEN also reports eastward expansion of subsurface warm waters, a condition that often precedes intensifications of the coastal event.
Active anomalous swell: 53 to 75 ports closed
The Hydrography and Navigation Directorate (DHN) of the Peruvian Navy issued Special Notice No. 16-26, valid through April 30, 2026. The staggered port closures over the past two weeks have been the most extensive of the year:
- April 15-23: up to 75 ports closed simultaneously between Tumbes and Tacna.
- April 26: 53 ports still under closure.
- North: light SW swells with long periods.
- Center and south: moderate to strong swells with notable intensification on April 25-26.
- 90% of the Chimbote fishing sector reported shutdown due to sea conditions.
For surfers, this translates into powerful swells from SW–SSW directions with 14-18 second periods reaching the central and southern coast — conditions similar to a typical early southern season swell, but with unusual timing.
NOAA: 61% probability of global El Niño in May-July
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updated its ENSO forecast in April:
- May-July 2026: 61% probability of transition to global El Niño (Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.5°C sustained).
- April-June 2026: 80% probability of remaining ENSO-neutral, transitioning to El Niño in Q2.
- Persistence: if confirmed, the global event would extend at least through end of 2026, overlapping with local Coastal El Niño.
The combination of a declared Coastal El Niño alert and an emerging global El Niño could amplify temperature, rainfall and swell anomalies in the second half of the year.
What does this mean for the 2026 southern season?
The southern season (May-October) depends primarily on extratropical storms in the South Pacific, which generate the SW-SSW swells that feed Peruvian spots. Expected effects:
- Warmer-than-usual water: elevated SST partially attenuates the typical winter cold from Humboldt upwelling. You'll probably still need a 4/3 or 3/2 wetsuit, but the difference between dawn and midday will be more marked.
- Higher probability of isolated anomalous swells: like the April event, these could repeat during winter with more intense swells or unusual directions.
- No structural alteration of southern swells: the storms that generate big waves are at 40-60°S latitudes and aren't directly affected by Coastal El Niño. Pico Alto, Punta Rocas and the southern ledges will continue receiving their swells.
- More unstable coastal atmosphere: more frequent onshore winds along the coast, more morning fog, more intense drizzle (garúa).
Safety recommendations for surfers
While the anomalous swell alert is in effect (through April 30) and during the months with moderate magnitude risk (June-July):
- Check the DHN notice before entering the water: dhn.mil.pe/portal/avisos-especiales.
- Watch for intensified rip currents: long-period swells generate stronger rip currents, especially at beach-break spots (Punta Hermosa, San Bartolo, Pampilla).
- Don't underestimate normally calm spots: during anomalous swell events, La Herradura, Makaha and Cerro Azul can double their usual size.
- Surf with a buddy and let someone on land know about your session, especially at rock spots like Punta Roquitas or La Pampilla.
- Check the forecast at wavesearch.pro: we monitor wave height, period and swell direction with Open-Meteo and Copernicus data updated hourly.
Updated 2026 timeline
For full context, this is the official ENFEN communiqué timeline during 2026:
- Jan 16: Coastal El Niño watch.
- Feb 13: Coastal El Niño alert — weak magnitude through November.
- Mar 3: confirmation of initial phase.
- Mar 14: alert extended through December 2026, possible moderate magnitude in autumn.
- Apr 16: alert extended through January 2027, possible moderate Jun-Jul.
- Apr 30: next official communiqué scheduled.
Conclusion
Coastal El Niño 2026 is more extended and more intense than projected in February, and a global El Niño appears to be joining on the horizon. For the Peruvian surfer, the southern swells will continue arriving, but the oceanographic context demands attention to DHN notices and ENFEN communiqués. The 2026 southern season promises powerful waves and warmer-than-usual water.
For more on how this phenomenon forms and its history, read our complete guide to Coastal El Niño 2026.
Sources
- ENFEN — Official Communiqué No. 07-2026 (April 16, 2026).
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (April 2026).
- DHN-Peruvian Navy — Special Notice No. 16-26.
- Infobae Perú, La República (April 2026).